nwl

For the immediate future, 'dinner-out' is out. Nutritious, balanced meals prepared at home with natural foods is 'in' and that bodes well for Newell Rubbermaid (NWL), which is why I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for the company , first recommended on April 27, 2009 at a price of $8.08. If you bought NWL in April, you're up a remarkable 86%.

Do you think Wall Street overdid it, somewhat, on the down side, with Newell Rubbermaid? Shares touched $4.51 in March, and we caught the train just-in-time at around $8.

Did you catch one theme of the frugal consumer era? For middle America, dinner out is out; dinner in is in.

Look for Newell Rubbermaid to continue to profit from this trend, as Americans shun dining out for a very long time, which means leftovers will increase. That's bullish for the company's Rubbermaid food storage containers; kitchen utensils will also see impressive gains.

Analyst upgrades:

• Morgan Stanley upgraded Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) to Overweight from Equal Weight as they expect the company to benefit from higher natural gas prices in 2010. The firm has a $34 target on shares.
• Citigroup upgraded Energy Conversion (NASDAQ: ENER) to Hold from Sell on valuation is it finds the risk/reward balanced at current levels. The firm raised its target price to $16 from $13.
• Jefferies upgraded Lifetime Brands (NASDAQ: LCUT) to Buy from Underperform to reflect reduced liquidity concerns and an improved outlook for Global Direct Sellers. The firm raised its target price to $4 from $2.
• American Eagle (NYSE: AEO) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
• TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) was upgraded at Barclays to Overweight from Equal Weight and to Outperform from Netural at Credit Suisse.
• STEC Inc (NASDAQ: STEC) was raised to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.

This market remains a stock picker's market. Select the wrong stock, and there's a 30-40% haircut up ahead; select the correct stock, and you're positioned for the recovery with modest downside exposure. For a chance at the latter, consider Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL).

Newell Rubbermaid has the right goods for the new era: the era of the 'frugal consumer' means Americans will be shunning dining out for a very long time, which means leftovers will increase. That's bullish for the company's Rubbermaid food storage containers; kitchen utensils will also see impressive gains.

Analyst upgrades:

• KeyBanc upgraded Greenbrier (NYSE: GBX) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company has options to forestall covenant violations or bankruptcy, event if conditions deteriorate further.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Market Perform from Underperform citing low expectations, favorable FTC settlement, progress on cost cutting, and valuation.
  
• JP Morgan believes First Merit (NASDAQ: FMER) is one of the best positioned Midwest banks to weather the storm and notes its compelling valuation and capital levels. The firm upgraded shares to Overweight from Neutral.
• Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Compass Minerals (NYSE: CMP) was lifted to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says companies saddled with high debt loads can be found in every sector in every business.

Overleveraged. Too much debt. Need to pay down debt. How many times have you read that story?

You read it so much because it plays out every day and plays havoc with stock picking almost every time you see a savory stock down on its luck.

This weekend, as I went through the charts, I was amazed at how low some stocks have gone, stocks that I would normally say to just take a flyer on, but turn out to have so much debt, short- and long-term, that they are just too dangerous.

Consider these perhaps poisonous morsels:

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA), the first Dow component to report earnings and thus kick off the earnings season, posted a bigger-than-expected loss of $1.19 billion Monday after the close. This disappointing start to the earnings season came less than a week after the aluminum giant said it is cutting jobs and production. The causes are the general economic downturn, and specifically the lower demand from the automotive, commercial transportation and building and construction sectors, which caused a 35% slump in aluminum prices. AA shares traded 1% lower in premarket action, but that's after closing down nearly 7% Monday. AA shares decline over 3.5% around 10 am.

Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE), the Japanese consumer electronics giant, will likely have an annual operating loss of about $1.1 billion, its first loss in 14 years, as sales fizzle for digital cameras, flat-panel TVs and other gadgets. Sony's shares plunged Tuesday and the stock fell more than 4.8% in pre-market trading. SNE shares declined over 3.3% near 10 am.

Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) will no doubt still be in focus after news broke they are in negotiations for City to sell to Morgan Stanley a majority stake in its Smith Barney brokerage unit as a means of raising cash. Citi shares fell sharply Monday -- more than 17% -- as investors wonder how much more cash the troubled bank will need. Shares declined another 2% in premarket trading this morning. Citi shares decline over 5% and MS shares over 1.7% around 10 am.

Wednesday, consumer products maker Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL) delivered some bad news to investors when it slashed its current quarter profit outlook rather significantly.

It took the Street completely by surprise, and the shares got hammered to the tune of 27%.

Then yesterday, one of the quintessential companies that relies on consumer spending, Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), announced that it too has lowered its profit guidance for 2009, to a range of $2.25 to $2.75 per share from its previous range of $2.50 to $3 per share.

The company said it expects full-year net revenue yields to fall 6% to 10% on a constant dollar basis compared with previous guidance of a drop of 1% to 5%.

Despite the weak outlook, the shares were up on a day when not much else was rising.

What gives?

In the News:
Major U.S. Stocks Drop to Decade Lows
As U.S. Stocks continue their downward spiral many of the most well-known name are plunging to decade or more lows. General Motors is almost at a 70-year low. Among the other companies that have fallen and not able to get up include General Electric, Harley Davidson, Alcoa, Macy's, Microsoft, Southwest Airlines, Sara Lee, News Corp. Starwood Hotels, Kodak, Gannett, Intel, Newell Rubbermaid, International Paper and more.
http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/major-sp-stocks.html

The New Subprime: FHA-Backed Loans
The subprime wolves are back. The same people whose reckless practices triggered the global financial crisis are onto a similar scheme that could cost taxpayers tons more.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_48/b4110036448352.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story

Analyst upgrades:

• Credit Suisse upgraded shares of Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Neutral from Underperform as they believe the stock's defensive characteristics justify a premium valuation.
  
• Merrill raised Dreamworks (NYSE: DWA) to Buy from Neutral and has increased confidence in DWA's sustainable success following the performance of Kung Fu Panda and new revenue streams.
  
• Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) was raised to Buy from Hold at Stanford on valuation.
  
• Goldman upgraded Smurfit-Stone (NASDAQ: SSCC) and Canadian National (NYSE: CNI) to Buy from Neutral and added International Paper (NYSE: IP) to the Conviction Buy List.
  
• Northern Trust (NASDAQ: NTRS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill.

Analyst downgrades:

• Jefferies downgraded shares of Savvis (NASDAQ: SVVS) to Hold from Buy and lowered the target to $17 from $20 to reflect decreasing visibility from economic headwinds and expectations for increased capex.
  
• Citigroup downgraded Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) to Sell from Hold as they believe fundamentals are not in-line with the current valuation following the recent rally.
  
• Merrill lowered their General Electric (NYSE: GE) estimates below consensus and downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy citing increased fundamental pressures on the company's GE Capital unit. GE's target was cut to $28 from $37.50.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: StoneMor Partners, Suntech Power and Tesoro were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Morgan Keegan initiated StoneMor Partners (NASDAQ: STON) with a Market Perform rating. The firm has a low level of confidence in STON's financial projections given its vulnerability to changes in state and local regulations, and financial reporting complexities.
  
• Jesup & Lamont initiated Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) with a Buy based on the company's leading position in solar PV, industry growth and polysilicon supply agreements in place.
  
• Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) was assumed with an Underweight rating at JP Morgan. The firm expects the West Coast margins to remain weak given the decline in the gasoline demand and capacity increases of the majors.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• RBC Capital initiated Agrium (NYSE: AGU) with an Outperform rating and $115 target.
  
• Merrill initiated Kohlberg Capital (NASDAQ: KCAP) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Caris started Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL) with an Average rating and $24 target.

A choppy, indecisive market requires a defensive play or two as a safety net, and a defensive stock worthy of consideration is Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL).

Newell Rubbermaid doesn't strictly fit the definition of a defensive stock, but its signature product, combined with its overall diversity in the consumer product space, make the stock a worthy consideration.

Newell Rubbermaid's signature product is the food storage container. At first glance, one could argue that U.S. shoppers will buy fewer of these containers as the U.S. economy slows, as it is, strictly speaking, a discretionary purchase. Still, we know from previous belt-tightening periods Americans tend to cut back on dining out. Undoubtedly that means more home prepared meals, and leftovers, which need containers -- a positive trend for Rubbermaid.

More infant deaths, this time not from Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS), but rather, badly-designed cribs.

According to today's reports: "About 1 million Simplicity and Graco Inc (GGG) cribs are being recalled after three children became entrapped in their cribs and died of suffocation, the Consumer Product Safety Commission said Friday. Two infants, a 6-month-old and a 9-month-old, died in the recalled cribs, which were sold through May 2007. A 1-year-old child died in a newer model of the cribs, which has not been recalled but is being investigated by the safety agency, CPSC officials said. In all three deaths, the consumer had installed the drop-rail side of the crib upside down, the CPSC said. This creates a gap in the crib that children can slide into and suffocate. Seven other infants have been entrapped in the cribs, according to the CPSC. There have been 55 reports of the cribs' drop sides detaching or the hardware failing to hold the side to the crib."

How does this happen? Why does this happen? The companies in question are not novices. Guess what...Simplicity Inc., of Reading, Pa., is listed as manufacturer of all the cribs, which were made in China. I think this is another example of an American company losing control of the process and forgetting that our product safety standards are not universal and that developing countries with rapidly expanding industrialization just don't get it.

Getting and keeping brand recognition is a critical part of any business endeavor. There is an outfit in Atlanta that ranks among the best in achieving those goals. The company's product list is one of the best recognized anywhere.

Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL) manufactures and distributes a wide variety of consumer and commercial products. Offerings include a long list of well-known home and office brands, including Levolor blinds, Lenox hand tools, Sharpie pens, Rolodex record holders, Amerock cabinet hardware, DYMO label makers, Graco children's products and Rubbermaid items. Competitors include Avery Dennison (NYSE: AVY) and Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO).

The firm pleased investors earlier in the week, when it raised Q3 guidance. Management now sees EPS of 48-50 cents (45 cent consensus) and revenue growth near the high end of the previously estimated 5-7% range. Strength in the Home & Family and Tools & Hardware segments were cited in support of the adjustment. The company also boosted Y07 EPS guidance to $1.74-1.78 ($1.76 consensus).